Trump can keep a secret, believe me

Karen McDougal (Toglenn)

Blake Hounshell (Politico, Feb 18, 2018) doesn't believe Trump was guilty of conspiring with the Russians. He bases his entire analysis on an absence of evidence argument. The absence of evidence theory goes like this: Since there is no evidence that Trump conspired with the Russians, therefore he didn't. Hounshell knows Trump didn't do it because he didn't blab about it and he can't keep a secret. That's another argument from absence of evidence, like saying the criminal didn't do the crime because he didn't tell anyone about it.

Hounshell should understand that absence of evidence is not evidence. It's conspiracy fodder, like saying that because I can't see global warming happening, it must be nonsense, or else there's a huge conspiracy of scientists to trick us into believing global warming is a thing. It's particularly suspect when you base your argument on the idea that Trump can't keep a secret, and therefore there is no secret. That whole argument falls apart because Trump can keep secrets, and has done so on many occasions, when he believes it is in his interest to do so.

Trump kept his numerous sex adventures secret by elaborate non-disclosure agreements and "catch and kill" contracts, whereby a publisher buys an informant's story for a high sum of money, then kills the story. It's a way to keep the public from ever finding out what some powerful man (or woman) doesn't want them to know. Trump did this at least once, to keep one of his sexual conflicts from telling her story to the press. Karen McDougal sold her story to the National Enquirer, which promptly buried it so that it never saw the light of day. Until now.

Trump kept that secret for 10 years, because he understood that it would harm him if it became public knowledge. He also kept secret his sexual encounters with  an actress in pornographic movies. He kept these secrets because he understood the repercussions such scandals would have for his marriage and his public image.

Trump has also hidden his dealings with Russian oligarchs and the mob-controlled unions in the New York building trades. He concealed those things because he understood that they were illegal. On the other hand, he revealed top secret information to Russians because he didn't believe it was important to him, personally. He may have realized that describing espionage arrangements to Russian spies could result in serious damage to the people who obtained the information, maybe even their deaths, but he didn't care about that--because Trump only cares about what affects him personally.

That's why he refuses to release his tax returns. Because they contain evidence of his own criminal activity. He has concealed the contents for years, despite the demands of all and sundry to release them. Another secret he keeps is how much he is actually worth. He claims to be a billionaire, but some people doubt that. Trump himself, when asked under oath how much he was worth, said it just depended on his mood.

Trump can keep a secret. He knows that conspiring with the Russians to rig an election is a serious criminal offense. He's going to keep that secret until he goes to jail for it.

Marco Rubio: Get ready for a return to the Cold War

In 1946, after World War II had ended, the US was faced with a choice: It could disarm and join other nations in seeking to maintain peace through negotiations and treaties and international organizations like the United Nations. Or, it could continue adding more weapons to its arsenal, make ever larger bombs, fight more wars in far-flung places, and scare the bejezus out of everyone in the world.

As we now know, the US chose the second course of action and took a series of aggressive postures all over the world that led to animosity, fear, and war. That period of world history is known as the Cold War, an era in which the major military powers stared each other down while trying to seize territory and influence from each other. The Cold War was characterized by intense regional warfare in Korea, Vietnam, Israel, and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, and at the same time, the rest of the world was taking the first course, building the United Nations, developing international treaties to avoid war and, especially, to avoid committing crimes against humanity. The US was in the forefront of this movement in the aftermath of WWII, when Eleanor Roosevelt lent her considerable influence to the UN and the Geneva Accords on human rights. But later presidents--Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower--decided to treat Russia and China as enemies and developed a policy of "containment".

This policy of containment and use of force to deter enemies is exactly what Marco Rubio prescribes as a foreign policy--not surprisingly, since his advisors were also advisors to George W. Bush. So Rubio tells us that

physical strength and an active foreign policy to back it up are a means of preserving peace, not promoting conflict.

Rubio thus makes clear that he did not learn anything from the disastrous wars of G. W. Bush. If physical strength and an active foreign policy are a means of preserving peace, why did Bush's presidency take over a generally peaceful world from his predecessor and turn it into two major wars that continued during his entire administration? The answer is, of course, that Marco Rubio and the neoconservatives who advise him are completely wrong, that his policy will lead to war, not peace, and trying to intimidate nations is a good way to consolidate the power of despots who rule them.

Worse than simply advocating a foreign policy of belligerence against one country, Rubio proposes to attack (either physically or diplomatically) three powerful nations at the same time: Iran, Russia, and China. This policy, if carried out, would undoubtedly complete the destruction of the American economy begun so calamitously under G. W. Bush.

Rubio seems in love with the idea of a powerful US dominating the world's nations and dictating the terms of peace. The world has become too large for that, however. The techniques of asymmetric warfare are too well-known. The rebels in Afghanistan successfully fended off the Russian army. The Communist forces in Vietnam threw off the yoke of colonial oppression and sent the better-equipped and better-trained American forces back home.

Rubio and his neo-con advisors criticize Obama for being too risk-averse. They do not explain, however, how the US could prevent Russia from prevailing in the Ukraine, or prevent China from dominating the South China Sea. Rubio seems to believe the simple posting of military force in opposition would convince the Russians to abandon Ukraine or the Chinese to give up their designs on Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The problem that Rubio faces is not that his plan would fail, but that it would lead inevitably to hostilities between the US and countries whose assistance we will need to meet the challenges of global climate change and growing shortages of water and agricultural land. In an era when nature has provided mankind with a challenge we may not survive, we need to abandon our territorial ambitions and lust for wealth in the name of a greater good, the survival of the planet. Rubio and his pals ignore this fact. Their election to power would bring disaster, not just to the US, but to the whole world and all its inhabitants.

Russia v. USA: Natural gas not bombs.

The most important battle we face in the world today is the fight against global warming. But we must also make the world safe for children and growing things. Vladimir Putin is one of the chief threats in both battles.

Putin is an old-style dictator who learned how to make people believe just about anything while he worked for the NKVD. He has adopted the old Soviet style of government, based on threats, bullying, and force.

In the old days, which people call the Cold War, the US responded to Soviet threats with threats of their own, bullying, and force. There was not much to distinguish between the two cold war antagonists. The Soviets crushed demonstrations in Hungary with tanks in 1956. The US sent troops to Vietnam to suppress the revolution, starting in 1957. The Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979. The US provided weapons to the Afghan resistance.

The Cold War is generally considered to have ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1979. But the Cold War was no more than an extension of the armed conflicts between European powers and their proxies that occupied the 19th and 20th centuries. Russia has the same territorial ambitions that drove its foreign policy since the Crimean War. Once again, Russia has seized the Crimea.

The US has signaled that it does not intend to fight against Russia with military force. Instead, it is fighting with natural resources. The US has increased its production of natural gas through fracking and other technical advances. Russia's only influence in the world now comes from its natural resources. By providing an alternative to Russian gas and oil, the US is using commodities as a weapon.

This presents a strategic problem for those of us who believe that less energy production, not more, is the answer to global warming. At the same time, we would like to see less bloodshed in the world. There is a fine line to be drawn here. Deflecting Russian aggression serves two purposes, though. First, it protects Russia's neighbors from the kinds of oppression they experienced under Stalin and during the Cold War. Second, it assures that less Russian gas will be sold on the open market. The total of US and Russian gas sales will remain constant.

Defeat of Putin is essential to serve as an example to other warmongers everywhere. Less Russian production of natural gas will eventually lead to fewer greenhouse gases and less global warming.ß

Russian Olympics: Anti-gay propaganda law embarrasses Putin

All the pieces of despotic rule are being set in motion in Russia right now. The ruler of Russia, Vladimir Putin, already has power to do whatever he wants. He has silenced his opposition by arresting or removing them from office. And he has subverted the Constitution by retaining power after the Constitution dictated that he relinquish it—he found a stooge to keep his chair warm for four years, and arranged to have the Constitution changed, so that he could be re-elected for a six-year term.

Another component of despotism is a fiercely loyal power base. Stalin had the Communist Party. Putin has the Orthodox Church. The Church is a good base of support for a totalitarian despot because believers are not supposed to question authority. The Catholic Church provided support for fascism in Spain and Italy. Islam has provided support for the Ayatollahs in Iran and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Putin has also organized a youth movement to act as the spearhead of his regime. Young people act impulsively and energetically. They follow leaders without question. Hitler used the Hitler Youth. Mao used the Red Guard. For over a decade, Putin has used a youth group called Nashi. The movement is primarily an ultra-nationalist group that wears white t-shirts emblazoned with a stylized red cross. Nashi's webpage leads with a picture of Putin and its own leader. Nashi apparently specializes in dirty tricks against Putin's rivals, like Ksenia Sobchak, a young socialite woman. Sobchak makes fun of Putin and his prudish supporters. She is more an annoyance than a threat.

Another group that identifies itself with Putin's goals—though not with Putin himself—is the National Socialist party. This party declares itself to be Christian, violent, Aryan, and nationalist. Its similarities to the German Nazi party are obvious. The National Socialist Party has little support in Russia. Its newspaper has not been posted online since 2001. The National Socialist Party attacks ethnic minorities, who have migrated to the big cities in recent years. It is reputed to have made a video showing two murders in 2007.

A key component of any despotism is an enemy. The enemy unifies the leader's followers in attacking a common opponent and serves as a scapegoat--the leader can blame all the nation's troubles on the enemy. Putin's obvious choice would have been to attack the Jews or another ethnic minority, but the Jews have many supporters in the world right now. European countries, whom Putin needs to buy Russian gas and oil, would be likely to object strongly.  

Instead, Putin chose to attack gays. He apparently believed this would not be a problem with foreign countries, and he knew the orthodox Christians would support him, particularly in view of the church leadership's position on gays. The Russian Orthodox Prelate, head of the Russian church, has declared that foreign countries that recognize same-sex marriage are a sign of the apocalypse. The Prelate supports the ban on “homosexual propaganda” recently signed into law by Putin.

Numerous groups in Russia have been formed to attack and harass gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) Russians. The largest of these, Occupy Pedophilia, claims 75,000 followers on VK, the Russian Facebook. Occupy posts videos of its members taunting and assaulting suspected LGBT youth. The Russian authorities do not seem much interested in investigating these videos.

The anti-gay-propaganda law declares open season on LGBT Russians. Being gay is technically still legal, but the anti-gay-propaganda law forbids anyone to spread homosexual “propaganda” to Russian youth. This crime is so vague that it could cover almost anything a LGBT person might say about his/her sexuality or social opinions.

Putin has had the misfortune to sign this law just as Russia is preparing to host the Winter Olympics, and has received much criticism. Western celebrities have been slamming the law for weeks. The attacks will likely continue until after the Olympics.

The internal Russian LGBT movement itself has welcomed the new anti-gay-propaganda law because the law has finally succeeded in attracting the West's attention:  gays have been living with the regional versions of this law for years and this is the first time the outside world has noticed. The first anti-gay-propaganda law was passed in Ryazan province in 2006. Subsequently, in October 2012, the UN Human Rights Committee ruled the Ryazan law discriminatory  and called on Russian authorities to repeal it.  The Russian gay community is still waiting. 

A spokesman in Russia, Nikolay Alekseyev, ridicules activists outside Russia who urge a boycott of the Olympics; he claims such boycotts are always ineffectual, and only harm the athletes. Alekseyev has sponsored numerous Gay Pride parades inside Russia, but these events had to be kept secret so they would not be disrupted by anti-gay skinheads. He and several LGBT activists have appealed their convictions under Russian law to the International Human Rights Court in Strasbourg, France. Their convictions were reversed and should be recognized by Russian authorities, eventually. 

Olympic authorities have announced that they will tolerate no political demonstrations from participants. The Russian government has explained that the anti-gay-propaganda law is not discriminatory, since everyone is forbidden to spread gay propaganda. Essentially, this means a heterosexual can talk about his/her sexuality, but a gay person cannot. This situation is hardly non-discriminatory, and conflicts with the Olympic charter. It also conflicts with the ruling of the UN Human Rights Committee.

Putin moves to consolidate power

Putin received a shock after demonstrations greeted his last, rigged election in 2012. Thousands of demonstrators went into the streets to protest documented reports of carousel voting—fraudulent voters going from one polling place to another, voting at each one—and large dumps of absentee ballots. Observers also reported voters being paid a dollar each to vote for Putin.

These demonstrations alerted Putin to his precarious position. The previous government had been destabilized and overthrown by street protests. Putin started consolidating his power with a swing to the right. His supporters proposed and he signed the anti-gay-propaganda law attacking rights of expression. Putin also stepped up attacks on the internet by passing the Russian anti-piracy law, which permits courts to shut down websites that violate copyright laws.

Putin's allies in this push for internet purity are the League of Safe Internet, which attacks informational sites (like Wikipedia's article on cannabis) as well as those with sexual content. Russian authorities have also used an anti-extremism law to crack down on bloggers, including nationalist radicals and opposition pundits. Authorities brought 103 cases against bloggers and internet commentators in 2012, a 3-fold increase over 2011. The true importance of these legal cases is not their number but the menace they signal for others. One Russian internet industry spokesman believes the bloggers brought the repression on themselves, because they had used the internet to attack the government too freely, believing they would never be caught. This is nonsense, of course. The bloggers were exercising their rights of free expression, guaranteed by Article 29 of the Russian Constitution. There appears to be some conflict in Russia about exactly which rights the Constitution guarantees and which ones should only be exercised sparingly.

Putin has only a short while to consolidate his power. The 2012 election controversy hurt his popularity. If Putin wants to try a coup against the Russian government, he must move quickly. If he fails, his window of opportunity may be lost, and the Russian Federation will continue without him.

Vladimir Putin: World's most dangerous person

"Dickhead Putin" by H. Masri

[The picture I had posted here of Vladimir Putin was taken down from the web. It may be that it happened because this post has had over 1,000 views, or more likely because Putin found the picture, which showed him with an automatic rifle, too close to the truth. Recently, many
people in Turkey and Ukraine have been reading MasriZone. I hope I have played a small part in revealing to the world what a dangerous man he is.] 

Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man in the world. North Korea has been considered the most dangerous country in the world because their autocratic rulers, the Kim family, had both great power and nuclear weapons technology. The truth is, however, that a couple of nuclear devices are hardly a danger comparable to the oil reserves of Russia. Russia is now the largest producer of oil in the world.  More on this later.

Vladimir Putin is the ruler of Russia. Russia has a long history of authoritarian rule, and Putin has moved to follow that model. He has carefully built a cult of personality, similar to those created by the North Korean dictator Kim Il-Sung and China's ruler, Mao Tse-Tung. But Putin's model is most likely Joseph Stalin.

Joseph Stalin, another Russian strong man, also built a cult of personality. Nearly all the portraits of Stalin showed him in an army uniform looking heroically into the distance. He is generally shown holding a pistol, with clenched fist, or with hands folded across his stomach. Most of the pictures show him from a low camera angle, nearly always alone. This made him appear taller than his actual height of 5 feet, four inches. Stalin had a penchant for erecting statues of himself. Hundreds of them stood in prominent locations in Russia and her empire. Many statues were colossal, standing on high pedestals.

Stalin's efforts to create a cult of personality worked. Russians believed him heroic, strong, capable of protecting them in a violent world. They also feared him, knowing he was capable of murdering his adversaries or anyone he believed was an enemy. Stalin was a violent man, and a narcissist, as revealed by the vast array of statues, photos, and posters bearing his image; he was a killer without conscience. Modern estimates place the number of his victims at more than 3 million people.  

Putin is building his own cult of personality. His photos in various poses strike Americans as odd, even amusing. Like a super model or movie star, he poses in all sorts of roles, all intended to make him appear powerful, vital, capable. He poses with symbols of power, guns, motorcycles, airplanes, even a bathyscaphe. He likes to show off his bare, clean-shaven chest. He shows no weakness in public, ever, refusing even to smile, or to pose with a woman.

Putin divorced his wife of 30 years and has been rumored to be involved with a 30-year-old rhythmic gymnast. He makes no comment about this and is careful not to be seen in compromising positions with the younger woman. There is no freedom of the press when it comes to covering Putin's private life. Putin may reinforce his masculine image by having a much younger mistress, but he obviously doesn't want to share the spotlight with a woman.

Putin has undermined democracy in Russia. After serving two terms as president, he picked Medvedev as his stand-in while Putin continued to make the decisions. Putin has now been re-elected president for a six-year term. He has bought a great deal of popularity by distributing the oil revenues of Russia to its citizens. He has further increased his popularity by passing laws that persecute dissenters and gays, actions that appeal to the conservative adherents of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian authorities arrested a punk rock group called Pussy Riot for disrupting a church service by singing a song mocking Putin. A court sentenced three young female members of the rock band to two-year sentences in prison for hooliganism, a crime similar to disorderly conduct, except that in America we don't put people in prison for two years for disorderly conduct, or for singing mocking songs about our politicians.

Stalin had the backing of the Communist Party, which is now defunct. In its place, Putin uses the revived Orthodox Church as his power base. He has to reinforce his appeal to this base just as Republican politicians must satisfy the Tea Party. Putin's chief ally in this endeavor is Yelena Mizulina, a middle aged female legislator who proposes laws to enforce morality. One of her laws puts a tax on divorce; this is a stroke of irony, not just because Putin recently divorced his own wife, but also because Russia has the highest divorce rate in the world. Other laws under consideration would ban abortions and morning after pills.  Mizulina, a devout Christian, believes she can redeem Russian society (and increase the declining population) by passing laws that support "traditional family values".

Mizulina, with Putin's support, proposed a bill to prohibit gays from spreading pro-gay “propaganda”. She claimed that the phrase “gay men are people too” needed to be investigated as subversive by the Russian bureau of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare. Anyone who disagrees with her views is likely to be accused of being part of a “pedophile lobby” that she claims exists in the political party opposed to hers. She defends her laws by saying they are only intended to keep information about homosexuality away from children.

The penalty for spreading gay propaganda is relatively small, about $150, but the law legitimizes anti-gay activities. The laws are so vague that they can be used to persecute almost any non-traditional speech or actions. Russian police have attacked and arrested demonstrators at gay pride events, while anti-gay groups have attacked and tortured gays and gay sympathizers. The anti-gay attackers have posted videos of their activities on YouTube, where you can see young men assaulted, placed in hammerlocks, held down, stepped on, and threatened.  

Putin signed the anti-gay legislation into law. Putin's support of this and other legislation of morality reinforces his own support of traditional masculine values. It makes him look like a tough guy. Neither he nor Mizulina have shown any sympathy for young gays who are attacked by Christian thugs. Putin asks that both sides refrain from violence, but he equates a non-violent demonstration with an assault. The Pussy Riot demonstration in a church is the closest that anti-government protestors have come to violence; they were only making music.  Yet there are many graphic photos of the violence done to anti-government demonstrators by police and Christian thugs.

Putin has shown his indifference to human suffering on a large scale by supporting the Syrian government as it massacres its own people. His support has resulted in thousands of innocent deaths. Putin seems to act only to prove his own toughness and his willingness to stand up to the Americans. This demonstration of his own bravado also seems to be his only reason for offering asylum to the American fugitive, Edward Snowden; Putin has used Snowden’s high-profile case to figuratively tweak the noses of the Americans.  

Russian Oil and Global Warming

Putin is cementing his hold on power by outlawing protests, freedom of assembly, and freedom of speech. What makes him most dangerous, though, is not how he oppresses the Russian people, but how this affects the rest of the world and its future. Putin's popularity is due to his handling of the Russian economy. Putin must continue increasing production of oil to meet the rising expectations of the Russian people.

The world's governments must work together to avert global warming, and they must do it soon. However, so long as Putin controls Russia, there will be no cooperation, since his continuation in power requires more oil production and Russia has no other profitable industries.  

Scientists have estimated that burning the 1.8 billion barrels of tar sands oil in Alberta (if fully developed) will raise global temperatures by 0.42 degrees Centigrade. By comparison, burning the 75 billion barrels of Russian tar sands oil could theoretically raise worldwide temperatures fifty times as much,  an increase of up to 21 degrees.  This estimate does not take into account the quality of the Russian deposits, which is as yet unknown.

Putin has no incentive to decrease emissions of greenhouse gases. There is no possibility of using force against Russia because it would cost too many lives and resources the world can ill afford to lose. Therefore, we must develop strategies that do not depend on Russia's cooperation. Some possibilities are: 

1. Make renewable, non-carbon polluting energy sources cheaper than oil. This is not impossible, although oil prices are determined by a cartel, not the free market.

2. Create abundant, affordable consumer devices (everything from cars and trains to barbecues) that do not use carbon-based fuel. Part of this solution would be to replace all fossil fuel electrical generators with generators that cannot use fossil fuel.

3. Put a tax on devices that generate greenhouse gases (including electricity generators) so that their energy costs more than comparable "green" sources.

     4.  Cooperate with the family of nations to convince Russia to abandon its irresponsible ways.

Whatever strategy we use, we must realize that Vladimir Putin will not help us. But more than that, unless we work together to prevent it, he has more power to destroy the future of our planet than any single man in history. That is why he is now the most dangerous person in the world.